This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.

The east winds started to weaken yesterday and should continue to decrease over the next 24 hours. A high pressure ridge has established itself over the forecast area and should bring gradually warming temperatures to the region. Daytime highs should reach into the upper 30's and low 40's above 7000 ft today. By tomorrow the daytime highs should rise another 5 to 10 degrees. The forecast calls for clear, sunny skies and continued warming as long as this high pressure persists.

Observations:

Observations on Rubicon Peak yesterday showed conditions similar to those seen across the forecast area this week. At the lower elevations, frozen melt-freeze crusts existed on all aspects. These frozen crusts extended up to 9000 ft on the W-SW-S-SE aspects. By mid afternoon some very shallow softening did occur on the most sun-exposed slopes. On the N-NE-E aspects above 8800 ft, a firm scoured surface left behind by the strong east winds existed. On the more sheltered N aspects between 7600 ft and 8800 ft, about 4-6 inches of softer snow remained (video). Stability tests and hand pits indicated that the bonds between the old crusts and the more recent snow and the bonds within the recent snow continue to gain strength. These tests and observations also showed that the weak sugary snow (facets) below the old crust has started to round and gain strength.

Avalanche Concerns:

As the snowpack continues to settle and strengthen, avalanche activity due to lingering instabilities in the most recent snow will become more and more unlikely. Wet snow instabilities that form as sunshine and warmer temperatures melt the frozen snow surface will comprise the primary avalanche concern over the next few days. Today these wet snow instabilities should remain small and isolated due to a very strong refreeze that has occurred over the last several days and gradually warming temperatures that should only reach into the upper 30's and low 40's. Some roller balls and wet loose sluffs may start to occur today on the most sun-exposed SE-S-SW aspects. Even though dangerous avalanche activity remains unlikely, it is not impossible. Continue to evaluate slopes carefully before committing to them and travel with caution in the backcountry.

The bottom line:

LOW avalanche danger exists on all elevations and aspects. Please use normal caution while traveling in the backcountry.

Andy Anderson - Avalanche Forecaster, Tahoe National Forest

Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:

0600 temperature:	22-24 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours:	24-29 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours:	East and Northeast
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours:	30-35 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours:	72 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours:	O inches
Total snow depth:	59-85 inches

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS

For 7000-8000 ft:
	Thursday:	Thursday Night:	Friday:
Weather:	Sunny	Clear	Sunny
Temperatures:	35-42 deg. F.	19-27 deg. F.	44-50 deg. F.
Wind direction:	East	East	Southeast
Wind speed:	15-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph decreasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon	around 10 mph after midnight	around 10 mph
Expected snowfall:	O in.	O in.	O in.
For 8000-9000 ft:
	Thursday:	Thursday Night:	Friday:
Weather:	Sunny	Clear	Sunny
Temperatures:	31-38 deg. F.	23-29 deg. F.	36-43 deg. F.
Wind direction:	East	Northeast	East shifting to the south in the afternoon
Wind speed:	20-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph deceasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon	10-15 mph	10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon
Expected snowfall:	O in.	O in.	O in.