This Avalanche Advisory was published on December 7, 2011:
December 7, 2011 at 8:01 am | |
LOW avalanche danger exists at all elevations and on all aspects. Use normal caution when traveling in the backcountry. Human triggered avalanches remain unlikely, but not impossible above 8,000' on steep NW-N-NE-E aspects. |
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Forecast Discussion:
A high pressure ridge over the west coast will keep the weather clear and dry over the forecast area for the next several days (more info). The light to moderate north and east winds should continue today. These winds may increase slightly tonight due to a weak low pressure system passing to the north of the region. Daytime highs above 7000 ft should climb slightly higher into the upper 30's and low 40's today and tomorrow.
On Incline Lake Peak in the Mt. Rose area yesterday, snowpit data and general observations showed that the entire snowpack from the ice layer at the bottom to the patches of hard slab on the top continues to weaken and facet. As the snow grains have changed into sharp-edge sugary crystals (facets), they have lost strength and their ability to act as slab layers in this area. Observations also showed that anchors in this area extend all the way through the snowpack in most places. These anchors disrupt the snowpack. Near and above treeline on the N-NE aspects, the N-NE-E winds have stripped most of the snow away from the slopes and exposed more rocks and patches of bare ground. Observations have shown similar conditions across most of the forecast area. Northerly aspects above 8000 ft north of I-80 have more snow coverage than most other places; however, the snowpack remains shallow with plenty of things to hit even in these areas.
Avalanche Concerns: Persistent slabs
The combination of N-NE-E winds scouring snow away from starting zones, continued faceting weakening any slabs that once existed, and a shallow snowpack with a plethora of anchors protruding though it has made avalanche activity unlikely for now. As the snowpack continues to change, it will do so sporadically leaving patches of instability scattered among areas of more stable snow. These small isolated pockets of instability should continue to decrease in size and distribution as the three processes mentioned above continue to change the snowpack. Steep poorly anchored slopes above 8,000' either above or below treeline on NW-N-NE-E aspects still warrant extra caution. Even a small slide could push a person into one of the many large rocks poking through the snowpack.
The bottom line:
LOW avalanche danger exists at all elevations and on all aspects. Use normal caution when traveling in the backcountry. Human triggered avalanches remain unlikely, but not impossible above 8,000' on steep NW-N-NE-E aspects.
Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:
0600 temperature: | 30-32 deg. F. |
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 33-37 deg. F. |
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | East northeast |
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 20 mph |
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 39 mph |
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | O inches |
Total snow depth: | 6-20 inches |
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000-8000 ft: |
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Wednesday: | Wednesday Night: | Thursday: | |
Weather: | Sunny | Partly cloudy | Sunny |
Temperatures: | 38-45 deg. F. | 19-26 deg. F. | 34-41 deg. F. |
Wind direction: | East | East shifting to the north after midnight | Northeast |
Wind speed: | 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph decreasing in the afternoon | around 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph after midnight | 10-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph |
Expected snowfall: | O in. | O in. | O in. |
For 8000-9000 ft: |
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Wednesday: | Wednesday Night: | Thursday: | |
Weather: | Sunny | Partly cloudy | Sunny |
Temperatures: | 35-42 deg. F. | 20-27 deg. F. | 32-38 deg. F. |
Wind direction: | East | East shifting to the north after midnight | Northeast |
Wind speed: | 15-20 mph with gusts to 45 mph decreasing to around 10 mph with gusts to 25 mph in the afternoon | around 10 mph with gusts to 35 mph after midnight | 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph |
Expected snowfall: | O in. | O in. | O in. |