This Avalanche Advisory was published on January 12, 2012:
January 12, 2012 at 8:00 am | |
LOW avalanche danger exists for all elevations and aspects. Use normal caution while traveling in the backcountry. |
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Forecast Discussion:
The weather should remain dry and sunny again today due to a high pressure ridge over the region. This ridge will keep the spring-like weather around through tomorrow as well. The easterly wind should continue today, and they should remain weak. The forecast calls for daytime highs to climb into the upper 30's and low 40's above 7000 ft. today and tomorrow. Currently the valleys below 7000 ft remain colder than the upper elevations due to cold air sinking into these areas. With light winds forecasted for the next two days these valley inversions should persist and may even get stronger.
The snowpack remains shallow and patchy across the forecast area. In most areas a plethora of anchors extend through the existing snowpack disrupting any weak layers that exist and holding the snowpack in place. The snowpack structure also varies greatly from location to location and even within one specific location. Observations have shown that where snow exists on the NW-N-NE-E aspects it could consist of anything from hard icy snow left over from last year to a mix of strong hard slabs on top of weak facets to rain crusts and melt freeze snow to thin crusts over weak facets. Most of rain / melt freeze conditions exist along the Sierra Crest north of Barker Pass where more rain fell. These are also the areas that hold the most snow. In more shallow higher elevation areas south of Barker Pass and east of the Lake where less warming occurred and less snow exists, more layers of weak facets exist and more anchors protrude through the snowpack. The N-NE-E aspects exposed to the strong N-NE-E winds earlier this season have even less snow on them due to significant scouring by these winds. Yesterday on Little Round Top Peak between Carson Pass and Echo summit these winds had scoured all of this season's snow away from the near and above treeline N-NE-E aspect areas leaving behind very strong very icy snow left over from last year and lots of bare ground (photos).
Avalanche Concerns:
Avalanche activity remains unlikely for now. The areas where a slab exists on top of weak snow are small and very isolated. Even where these conditions exist, actually triggering a fracture in the snowpack would prove difficult. The snowpack has shown signs of reforming weak layers in some areas. Depending on how widespread and developed these weak layers become, they could create a problem when snowfall arrives. The avalanche danger remains low, but plenty of other hazards exist in the backcountry including very icy slopes with lots of rocks and trees at the bottom and in the middle of these slopes. Continue to use caution when traveling in the backcountry.
The bottom line:
LOW avalanche danger exists for all elevations and aspects. Use normal caution while traveling in the backcountry.
Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:
0600 temperature: | 26-32 deg. F. |
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 38-45 deg. F. |
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | East shifting to the southwest |
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 10 mph |
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 22 mph |
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | O inches |
Total snow depth: | 0-18 inches |
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000-8000 ft: |
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Thursday: | Thursday Night: | Friday: | |
Weather: | Sunny | Clear | Sunny |
Temperatures: | 38-43 deg. F. | 23-28 deg. F. | 39-44 deg. F. |
Wind direction: | East | East | Variable |
Wind speed: | 5-15 mph | up to 10 mph | Light |
Expected snowfall: | O in. | O in. | O in. |
For 8000-9000 ft: |
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Thursday: | Thursday Night: | Friday: | |
Weather: | Sunny | Clear | Sunny |
Temperatures: | 34-39 deg. F. | 24-29 deg. F. | 35-40 deg. F. |
Wind direction: | East | East | East |
Wind speed: | 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph | 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph | Light |
Expected snowfall: | O in. | O in. | O in. |