Very little change in the current day to day weather forecast as a ridge of high pressure keeps a firm hold on the pattern. Clear skies and air temperature inversion will continue over the forecast area for the next several days. Warm air exists at the mid and upper elevations while cold air remains trapped on the mountain valley floors. Remote sensors are reporting air temperatures above 6,800' in the upper 20s to mid 30s this morning while the mountain valley floors are reporting single digits. Ridgetop winds were light from the east over the past 24 hours. Wind are forecast to remain light in speed out of the east today, tonight, and tomorrow.

Recent Observations:

Observations made around the forecast area over the past several days have revealed lingering hard wind slabs formed during recent NE winds and areas of wet surface snow that form in response to daytime warming. Observations made yesterday on Waterhouse Peak (Luther Pass area) showed above treeline wind slabs in lee areas on west aspects that were stubborn and very difficult to trigger, despite the presence of a weak faceted snow layer below the slab (pit profile, video, more info). Additional observations made on Hidden Peak (West Shore Tahoe area) also revealed good snowpack stability (photos, more info). Unconsolidated snow that has yet to undergo a melt freeze cycle was noted below treeline on N and NE aspects in numerous locations around the forecast area yesterday.

Avalanche Problem #1: Wind Slabs

Wind slabs that formed out of the recent NE wind event linger in near treeline and above treeline areas. Triggering at this time is difficult and unlikely, but not impossible. The most well developed wind slabs exist on SW-W-NW aspects. Wind slabs exist sporadically on other aspects as well. NE aspects are the only above treeline areas that seem entirely free of wind slabs. These slabs sit on top of thin layers of significantly lower density snow and/or a thin melt freeze crust. These slabs are high density, allowing for less than one inch of surface penetration by boots, skis, and snowmobiles. Due to the hard slab characteristics, any avalanches involving these slabs could be triggered once an individual is well out onto the slab, possibly fracturing well above and to the side of the individual. These hard slabs may support the passage of several individuals prior to failing. Even though at this time triggering is unlikely, the characteristics of this avalanche problem warrant continued caution.

Avalanche Problem #2: Loose Wet Avalanches:

Air temperatures fell to near or below freezing last night for the mid and upper elevation areas. This is expected to have produced a better snow surface refreeze than has been observed the past few mornings. While a few inches of wet surface snow will form today on SE-S-SW aspects in response to daytime warming, minimal instability is expected. The amount of incoming solar radiation and angle of the sun is still fairly low when compared to conditions during the month of March. While isolated loose wet snow avalanches are possible today on SE-S-SW aspects, their size is not expected to pose a significant threat to backcountry travelers.