This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Tahoe National Forest and the Sierra Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains between Yuba Pass on the north and Ebbetts Pass on the south. Click here for a map of the forecast area. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.


This Avalanche Advisory was published on January 31, 2012:


January 31, 2012 at 7:58 am

The avalanche danger remains LOW for all elevations and aspects. Continue to use normal caution traveling in the backcountry.


Forecast Discussion:


The cloud cover that developed yesterday afternoon started to disperse by last night. Mostly sunny weather with light to moderate winds should return to the region for today until another weak system arrives tonight. This system should bring more cloud cover, warmer overnight temperatures, increased southwest winds, and a slight chance of very light precipitation for areas north of I-80. Cloudy skies and southwest winds should continue through tomorrow due to this system. It should also keep tomorrow's daytime highs slightly cooler than previous days.

Observations:

Observations on Becker Peak (photo and snowpit) and on the Fireplug (Mt. Rose backcountry - photos and snowpit) both showed widespread, firm, breakable crusts on the northerly aspects. Snowpit data from these areas revealed a layer of softer, weaker snow underneath these crusts. Tests showed that while fractures can start in this weaker snow, they do not travel very far. No slab layers existed on top of this weaker snow in either area. Below the weaker snow a mostly stable and strong snowpack existed. On the sun-exposed SE-S-SW aspects on the Fireplug, limited melting occurred yesterday with only the top two to three inches of surface snow softening by 2 pm. Any shaded areas did not soften as much. By 2:30 pm as these slopes lost direct sunlight, they started to refreeze. Below the soft corn snow on these aspects, a two to four inch thick, frozen melt-freeze crust existed with strong well bonded snow below it. While some roller balls and pinwheels from previous days remained, observations found no new signs of wet snow instability in this area yesterday.

Avalanche Concerns:

Mostly clear skies and temperatures below freezing should have allowed a solid refreeze to occur last night. This refreeze combined with several days of melt-freeze cycles, low sun angles, and slightly cooler daytime highs should prevent significant warming and melting from occurring today. Even though avalanche activity remains unlikely today, enough melting could occur on the lower elevation sun-exposed SE-S-SW slopes for some small isolated wet snow instabilities to form. Any of these types of instabilities that do form should remain smaller and more limited than the activity that has occurred on previous days. Icy slopes, exposed rocks and trees, cliffs, and other terrain traps remain the most problematic backcountry hazards due to their ability to magnify the consequences of even the smallest snow slides or falls.


The bottom line:

The avalanche danger remains LOW for all elevations and aspects. Continue to use normal caution traveling in the backcountry.


Andy Anderson - Avalanche Forecaster, Tahoe National Forest


Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:

0600 temperature: 26-30 deg. F.
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 37-44 deg. F.
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: Southwest
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 10-15 mph
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: Along the Sierra Crest: 25 mph | In the Mt Rose area: 43 mph
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: O inches
Total snow depth: 19-37 inches

Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS

For 7000-8000 ft:

  Tuesday: Tuesday Night: Wednesday:
Weather: Mostly sunny Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers.
Temperatures: 35-42 deg. F. 25-30 deg. F. 30-37 deg. F.
Wind direction: West shifting to the east in the afternoon Southwest Southwest
Wind speed: 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
Expected snowfall: O in. O in. O in.

For 8000-9000 ft:

  Tuesday: Tuesday Night: Wednesday:
Weather: Mostly sunny Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy Partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers.
Temperatures: 31-35 deg. F. 21-28 deg. F. 25-30 deg. F.
Wind direction: West shifting to the east in the afternoon Southwest Southwest
Wind speed: 25-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph decreasing to 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon 20-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph increasing to 30-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph after midnight 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph
Expected snowfall: O in. O in. O in.