This Avalanche Advisory was published on January 24, 2007:
January 24, 2007 at 1:00 am | |
Forecast Discussion:
This advisory was posted on Wednesday, January 24, 2007 at 8:05 am
The bottom line: Avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. There is a possibility that as the steep, sun-exposed SW-S-SE aspects warm up in the afternoon you may be able to cause some small, loose, wet sluffs that could knock you off your feet.
First of all we want to say a heartfelt "thank you" to everyone who has made a contribution to the Avalanche Center this week. The show of support in both cash donations and Kirkwood Ski Day ticket purchases has been amazing! We still have a long way to go to reach our '06-'07 budget and even farther to meet our fund raising goal, but thanks to your generosity we are much closer. For more details on the current financial situation please click here. Our next fund raiser is another ski day on February 4th at Homewood. Tickets are on sale now at Snowbomb.com. If you can't make it but would still like to help out, please make a tax deductible donation directly to us via Paypal or by sending a check to our address listed above, c/o the Truckee Ranger Station. Your support is what makes the Sierra Avalanche Center possible.
Warm temperatures and calm winds prevailed again yesterday. The temperatures stayed above freezing all night on the crest last night. As the high pressure moves slowly east over the next few days, we should start to see some cooling at the higher elevations. The winds should also shift towards the south -southwest and increase as the high moves away from us. This movement will also help the inversion and allow the lower elevations to warm up.
The warm temperatures will help bonds form faster between the snow grains and layers within the snowpack. This process should help the snowpack consolidate and gain some strength during the warm spell. The layers of faceted snow will be the slowest layers to gain strength. These typically weaker, sugary, snow grains still exist around some of the more pronounced crusts and have been observed as well formed depth hoar in the Mt Rose area. Even though some of these layers show weakness when isolated in layer bonding tests, it seems that the crusts and other more dense layers bounding them have remained fairly strong and are helping to maintain the overall strength of the snowpack.
The southerly slopes have been getting soft enough to provide some decent riding by mid-afternoon. Those southerly slopes will likely continue to provide the best sliding conditions over the next few days as they go through a daily melt-freeze cycle. Even though these slopes are the most tempting, remember that there is not much snow on them and you have to choose your lines carefully to avoid shallowly buried obstacles. On other aspects the melt freeze crust continued to spread and can be found in places on all but the N-NE aspects. As you get away from the southerly aspects, it is getting very hard to find any consistent conditions. The surface changes from breakable crust, to hard wind slab, to ice crust, to soft drifts with almost every turn.
No avalanche activity was reported yesterday. A few "roller balls" formed on the sun exposed southerly slopes this afternoon but not much else. As the temperatures continue to stay above freezing, we may see more of this roller ball activity and maybe a small, wet, loose snow sluff or two. These would be limited to steep, sun exposed, SW-S-SE slopes in the afternoons.
The bottom line: Avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. There is a possibility that as the steep, sun-exposed SW-S-SE aspects warm up in the afternoon you may be able to cause some small, loose, wet sluffs that could knock you off your feet.
The next scheduled update to this advisory will occur tomorrow afternoon.
Andy Anderson , Avalanche Forecaster
Today's Central Sierra Weather Observations:
0600 temperature at Sierra Crest (8,700 feet):
35 deg. F
Max. temperature at Sierra Crest past 24 hours:
47 deg. F
Average wind direction at Sierra Crest past 24 hours:
East southeast
Average wind speed at Sierra Crest past 24 hours:
20-25 mph
Maximum wind gust at Sierra Crest past 24 hours:
42 mph
New snow fall at 8,200 feet past 24 hours:
0 inches
Total snow depth at 8,200 feet:
35 inches
Mountain Weather Forecast For Wednesday:
Sunny skies
Temperature forecast for 8,000 to 9,000 feet:
46 deg. F
Ridgetop winds forecast for the Sierra Crest:
southeast 15-20 mph
Snowfall expected in the next 24 hours:
0 inches
2 Day Mountain Weather Forecast:
7000 to 8000 Feet
Today sunny skies with light winds. Daytime highs around 47 degrees F. Tonight, clear skies with lows 20 to 30 degrees, F. Light variable winds. Thursday, sunny skies with daytime highs around 44 degrees F. Winds are forecasted to be out of the southwest at 10mph.
Above 8000 Feet
Today sunny skies with southeast winds at 15-20 mph. Daytime highs around 46 degrees F. Tonight, clear skies with lows 23 to 33 degrees, F. Southwest winds 15-20 mph. Thursday, sunny skies with daytime highs around 43 degrees F. Winds are forecasted to be out of the southwest at 15 to 20 mph.
The bottom line:
Weather Observations from along the Sierra Crest between 8200 ft and 8800 ft:
0600 temperature: | deg. F. |
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | deg. F. |
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | |
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | mph |
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | mph |
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | O inches |
Total snow depth: | inches |
Two-Day Mountain Weather Forecast - Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS
For 7000-8000 ft: |
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Wednesday: | Wednesday Night: | Thursday: | |
Weather: | |||
Temperatures: | deg. F. | deg. F. | deg. F. |
Wind direction: | |||
Wind speed: | |||
Expected snowfall: | O in. | O in. | O in. |
For 8000-9000 ft: |
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Wednesday: | Wednesday Night: | Thursday: | |
Weather: | |||
Temperatures: | deg. F. | deg. F. | deg. F. |
Wind direction: | |||
Wind speed: | |||
Expected snowfall: | O in. | O in. | O in. |